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The Most Successful Jetliner Of All Time?

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  • The Most Successful Jetliner Of All Time?

    ~~DISCLAIMER: I realise the concept of most successful is very subjective and a bit silly so don't take this too seriously! Feel free to disagree but be nice.
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    What is the most important civil aircraft of all time? Easy that's the DC-3, I don't think there's much argument about that, however what about most successful? It all depends on the criteria - impact on air travel, number produced, return on investment etc.

    Eastern Air Lines DC-3 by rstretton, on Flickr

    I think its the DC-3 again however what's the most successful jet? Success can't be measured just by numbers built, for the obvious reason that air travel has grown almost exponentially since 1945 so even a relatively unsuccessful aircraft today will still often get a respectable production run compared to those of the past. Within this context therefore you can't just list production numbers, whilst ROI is largely unknown and impact on air travel subjective.

    Off the top of my head those types in the running are probably:

    Boeing 707
    Boeing 727
    Boeing 737
    Boeing 747
    Airbus A320

    I don't rate Soviet aircraft here. They may have had high production runs but would never win anything in an open competition. Sadly though many British and French aircraft were excellent they rarely followed up on their promise, which can be partly understood given the World's largest free market rarely being willing to buy foreign built aircraft until well into the 90s.

    So let's take a look at the contenders:

    BOEING 707
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    Sudan Airways Boeing 707-320C by rstretton, on Flickr

    A truly great design which trounced the competing DC-8, VC-10 and Convair Jets (I don't think the Comet 4 really can be called competition for the 707). However it was more evolutionary than revolutionary, seeing as the Comet 1 was in service 7 years earlier and the 707 was a development of the KC-135 programme, but still its impact makes it the plane for most of the 1960s and the one that ushered in the jet age for many. Additionally its fuselage formed the basis for the 727, 737 and 757. Having said all that it was primarily a long-range jet with the 720 really only being a stopgap until the 727 arrived. As such it was never going to have an enormous production run - though the 917 civilian examples made is an exceptional total for the era.

    By June 1964 of the 1218 aircraft in the US Trunk airline fleets 257 were 707/720s whilst only 96 were DC-8s and 65 CV-880/990s. By June 1968 there were 484 707s, 171 DC-8s and only 47 CV880/990s. So certainly a worthy contender but the most successful? Perhaps not - the 707's time in the sun was relatively short as by 1970 the widebodies were taking over and the 70s fuel crisis' showed up its relatively poor economics.

    Ecuatoriana Boeing 707 by rstretton, on Flickr

    BOEING 747
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    Pan Am Boeing 747-121 Clipper Victor by rstretton, on Flickr

    The Jumbo certainly revolutionised air travel, but initially at least not in the way intended. Its enormous size and cost almost killed off several airlines and at the beginning of the 70s it was a plane looking for a requirement. Certainly Pan Am should've bought a lot less than it did and many customers probably shouldn't have bought any!

    Gradually the 747 found its place as the near 1500+ orders testify but in terms of technology apart from its huge size the 747 didn't really change much - aside from along with other widebodies killing the all-cargo divisions of many airlines. You could argue it decreased the cost of long-haul travel but this I think is mixed up along with other industry factors and not due solely to the 747. So again perhaps not the most successful, especially as the Tristar and DC-10 perhaps fitted the industries needs better at its inception?

    Pan Am 'Test Livery' Boeing 747-121 by rstretton, on Flickr

    National Airlines 747-100 by rstretton, on Flickr

    BOEING 737
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    Air Tanzania Boeing 737-200 by rstretton, on Flickr

    Over 8,100 737s have been built to date, however that is since 1967 and in reality the four generations of the type are close to qualifying as different types altogether (certainly the gap between Classic and Next Generation is very large). Incidentally the breakdown according to wikipedia (including undelivered) is over 12,000:

    737-100/200: 1144
    737-300-500: 1988
    737-600-900ER: 6659
    737-MAX: (2099)

    Those numbers are staggering - however aside from 1968 and 1969 the yearly production rate was a measly 20-50 aircraft a year from 1967-1979. In fact the original 737 was such a slow seller for Boeing that it almost got cancelled.

    In terms of impact the type really ploughed the furrow developed by the Caravelle, BAC One-Eleven and DC-9 before it. You could argue that it enabled the low-cost revolution however I don't think there is anything specific about the design in that.

    Lastly and more relevant, in my opinion, the 737 has never dominated the marketplace. Even when being produced in large numbers it has been matched by the MD80 and then the A320 series.

    Southwest Airlines Desert Gold Boeing 737-300 by rstretton, on Flickr

    AIRBUS A320
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    United Airlines Airbus A320 by rstretton, on Flickr

    If anything the A320 series probably has a greater claim to success than the 737. Since 1988 about 5,900 have been delivered with over 4,300 on order. It is the plane that really elevated Airbus to become the major player it is in the civil space and 'arguably' effectively killed off MDD.

    Though you could say the 737 was more important to the low cost revolution the A320 has clawed its way back and as for overall production it is about 50:50 with its Boeing competitor. Still like the 737 it has never dominated the marketplace - though it did kill off the 737 classic and MD90. Partly this is probably because of the original US bias towards US manufacturers as by 1990 the A320 was clearly the better frame, but since then the 737NG has proven itself just as good.

    Northwest Airlines Airbus A319 by rstretton, on Flickr


    BOEING 727
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ~~American Airlines Boeing 727-100 by rstretton, on Flickr

    PLUNA Boeing 727-100 by rstretton, on Flickr

    Braniff International Boeing 727-100 by rstretton, on Flickr

    My winner may surprise some people, because I don't think this aircraft gets enough credit nowadays. But I think the Boeing 727 is the most successful jetliner. Here's why:

    For starters 1831 aircraft were built in a production run that lasted only 24 years. For most of that run production was around 80 aircraft per annum (150+ in 1967 and 68!). This was at a time when the world's airfleets were a fraction of the size they are today and there was plenty of competition from Sud-Aviation, BAC, Convair, Douglas, Hawker-Siddeley etc.

    Looking at the fleet of the US Trunk carriers in 1968 of the 1679 aircraft in their fleets 439 or 26% were 727s. By 1978, though the trunk carrier fleet stood at 1807 aircraft 986 or 54% were 727s. This compares to 373 DC-9s in both the Trunk and Local service airline fleets combined. No other aircraft has dominated the marketplace like that (other than the DC-3). This was a result of Boeing upgrading the series 100 with a stretch to the 200 but sales really exploded in the 70s with the Advanced model series 200.

    Alaska Airlines Boeing 727-200 by rstretton, on Flickr

    PSA Boeing 727-200 by rstretton, on Flickr

    In terms of impact the 727 was the first jet that could operate medium range routes from short field local airports. Its amazing performance making it the jack of all trades and easily defeating the few aircraft (Trident) that really competed in its area (One-Elevens and DC-9s were really not competitors).

    In the late 60s and 1970s if you didn't buy 727s then you really needed a good reason for not doing so (or you were forced not to like BA was). They could replace first generation four-holers (as TW, DL, EA did) or provide added capacity on pioneer jet routes (as AA, BN and DL did). Though by the 80s the design was no longer top of the pile by sheer numbers it still dominated the global fleet until the 90s. For me the 727 enabled and cemented the growth of air traffic more than any other type has ever, aside from the DC-3.

    Lanica Boeing 727-100 by rstretton, on Flickr

    Delta Air Lines Boeing 727-200 by rstretton, on Flickr

    DISCLAIMER 2: I also realise that if passenger numbers had been higher in the past it doesn't mean airlines would have been buying 727s as opposed to higher capacity aircraft, though financing was different back then and few if any startups were buying new jets (unlike today). I'm sure many airline's in the 70s were stuck with second-hand 707s when they'd rather have had new 727s - something that isn't an issue today.

    I might add that I only have stats for the US industry but throughout the 1940-70s it accounted for more than half of the worldwide fleet (excluding the Soviet Union). For example in 1975 in the whole of Asia there were only about 560 civil airliners (over 50 of which were 727s).

    Here are some figures to enable you to see the affect of growth during periods and thus begin to gauge the 727s dominance compared to the 737/A320 today. Look at that growth post-deregulation:

    US Fleet by rstretton, on Flickr





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    http://yesterdaysairlines.weebly.com/

  • #2
    Very interesting. I had no idea 727 was 50% market share. What's the 737's market share now?
    Another factor in "most successful" might be inspiring competitors. The 737 certainly seems to have inspired the a320/a319 (with a big technological advance of course)

    Comment


    • #3
      I think I would have to split my vote. Like the DC-3, the 747 and its 50+ years sales success (until recently) demonstrated strength, stability, and impact on the aviation industry.. Also like the DC-3, The 737 represents 50+ years as the industry workhorse. Yes, other aircraft have followed on it's heels, but it set the standard and continues its success.
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      WALmsp

      Comment


      • #4
        Holy cow! I'm not the first to post a reply! I hope this is a good sign of increased membership activity & increased interest in a working forum.

        Another great article & this one on a macro level. very interesting to see such info, bravo.


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        Comment


        • #5
          A very interesting (and short) book on the economics of the commercial aircraft business is Boeing versus Airbus by John Newhouse. I think this came out 5-6 years ago.. A couple of things impressed upon me, specifically 1., engines are a big part of this discussion, perhaps even more than half.. and 2., the 747 stood for years in a class of its own.

          That being said, I respect your choice for "most successful". In the early 80's before Boeing mated the CFM motor to the 737, and well before the A320 series, there were 727s everywhere.. And, there is nothing like the sound of a high power static takeoff in the 727. It was more like a blast off then a takeoff. Who could forget the hard landings too? I don't miss those..

          I know pilots and crews really loved this airplane too. About 9 years ago I met a retired TWA captain who raved about the 727. He said the ergonomics of the plane were very pilot friendly and easy to transition from the Grumman twins he flew in the Navy. He talked about how the alarms would go off in the cockpit on approach to Lindbergh Field in San Diego... He was full of stories, wish I'd had more time. He also went on to say the DC-9 was a 'piece of junk', but I digress...

          Anyhow - Interesting post as always Sir, I always look forward to reading them. Thank you.

          Comment


          • #6
            In my opinion, the most succesfull propliner was the Douglas DC-3. Regarding the jetliner one, the Boeing 707 and I flew on both of them!!!

            Comment


            • #7
              Good post as usual Richard.

              I just wonder if one cannot create a niche to suit a specific aircraft type and then claim that as the most specific one for that niche.
              Not saying I am disagreeing with you, I just think there could be other candidates if one think of other criteria. The 727 and single aisle, short to medium distances for this category.

              One could then also consider the twin aisle long distance planes in a different category.
              For instance, the 777 or A330 sure are hot sellers and most people are transported by them over long distances. The 777 even appears to have killed off the market for the 747.

              Or of one looks at purely how much money a manufacturer makes from a model, then the 737 and A320 are the back-bone of what the book keepers at Boeing and Airbus am drooling over.

              Interesting topic. There will be many (or maybe just a few) different opinions however.
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              Comment


              • fleetlordatvar
                fleetlordatvar commented
                Editing a comment
                i'm LOVING it. an increase in posts, especially this one.

            • #8
              Speaking of the opposite, here is an interesting article about the unsuccessful A380!

              (post #12)



              http://www.diecastmodelaircraft.com/...video-pics-etc
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              Comment


              • #9
                I would have to go with the 737! Interesting topic!
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                Comment

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